Confirmation patterns

What confirmation looks like

Confirmation is price doing something that signals the turn the window anticipated is actually underway. You don't need an exotic pattern library — a handful of reliable structures cover most cases. The key is that each one represents a genuine shift in who's in control, not just a single suggestive candle.

The core confirmations

• Trendline break. Price has been riding a clean trendline into the window; it breaks and holds the other side. The simplest evidence the prior trend has paused or reversed.
• Level reclaim / loss. Price reclaims a level it had lost (bullish) or loses a level it had held (bearish) right around the window. Reclaims after a flush are especially powerful.
• Failure swing. In an uptrend into the window, price tries for a new high and fails, then breaks the prior swing low. (Inverse for downtrends.) A classic structural reversal.
• Reversal candle with follow-through. A strong rejection candle (long wick, engulfing) at the window — but only counts once the next candles follow through. One candle is a hint; follow-through is confirmation.

Notice the theme: each requires price to do something and have it stick. A wick with no follow-through, a break that immediately fails — these are not confirmations, they're bait.

Matching confirmation to the window

The cleaner the structure into the window, the cleaner the confirmation. A window that arrives while price is riding an obvious trendline gives you a precise trigger (the break). A window that arrives mid-chop gives you nothing to react to — which is a reason to pass, not to force a read.

Confirmation tells you a turn is underway and in which direction. The next two lessons sharpen it: volume tells you how much conviction is behind the move, and the 52-week context tells you what kind of move to expect.