Here is the single discipline that separates a thoughtful user of the radar from someone who gets burned: always read the win rate against the size of its sample. A 100% win rate over one year is not a 100% edge — it is one coin flip that happened to land heads. A 70% win rate over ten years is a far more trustworthy number, even though 70 is smaller than 100.
Big, round-looking percentages on tiny samples are the most dangerous thing on any statistical dashboard, because they look the most convincing while being the least reliable.
Don't fool yourself
See it for yourself
The simulator below flips a biased coin — a 'strategy' with a true 55% edge. Run small samples and watch the measured win rate swing wildly between 0% and 100%. Run large samples and watch it settle toward the truth. Nothing about the underlying edge changes; only the sample size does.
📊 Interactive demo — coming soon
This is why a single spectacular year tells you almost nothing, and why ten ordinary years tell you a great deal. The percentage is only as good as the count behind it.
Practical rules
Check the years first. Before you react to a win rate, look at how many observations it's built on. Let that set your confidence ceiling.
Discount tiny samples hard. Treat anything under about five years as a weak hint, not evidence — no matter how extreme the percentage.
Prefer consistent over spectacular. A steady 65% over a deep history beats a flashy 100% over two years, every time.
Combine, don't isolate. A modest Date Echo on a deep sample, sitting in confluence with cycle and Fib windows, is worth more than any single dazzling statistic.
The honest stance
The radar gives you the sample size on purpose — so you can judge for yourself. Using that number is the difference between reading statistics and being fooled by them.
With sample discipline in hand, the final lesson of this module shows how to combine all three time tools into one coherent read.
❓ Two windows on the same stock: A shows win 100% over 1 year; B shows win 68% over 11 years. Which is the more trustworthy edge?
Key takeaways
Always read a win rate against the number of years behind it.
Small samples produce wild, convincing-looking percentages that mean little.
Discount anything under ~5 years; prefer consistency over spectacle.
The radar shows sample size so you can judge — use it.
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