🕰️ Time Machine
ARI — Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance
Price-Time Intelligence · decision-support only — not recommendations, not predictions · as of 10/09/2026
Last price (Close)
6.68 -1.18%
Next window · Cycle 30 · in window · in 1 days
11/09/2026
Last window · Cycle 144 · 06/09/2026
since -2.91%
🕰️ Time Machine — see this symbol's past windows
Daily chart · hover for price & date
Reference points
Last major low · 30/07/2026
6.43
Days: 29 trading / 42 calendar · return since: +3.89%
Last major high · 15/04/2026
11.24
Days: 102 trading / 148 calendar · return since: -40.57%
Price-Time Watch Windows
| Reference point | Cycle | Counting | Target date | Distance | Status |
|---|
| Low 30/07/2026 @ 6.43 | Fib 21 | Trading | 📅 28/08/2026 | -8 (±1) | Passed |
| High 15/04/2026 @ 11.24 | Cycle 144 | Calendar | 📅 06/09/2026 | -4 (±3) | Passed |
| Low 30/07/2026 @ 6.43 | Cycle 30 | Trading | 📅 11/09/2026 | +1 (±2) | In window |
| Low 30/07/2026 @ 6.43 | Cycle 45 | Calendar | 📅 13/09/2026 | +3 (±2) | Upcoming |
| Low 30/07/2026 @ 6.43 | Cycle 60 | Calendar | 📅 28/09/2026 | +18 (±2) | Upcoming |
| Low 30/07/2026 @ 6.43 | Cycle 45 | Trading | 📅 02/10/2026 | +16 (±2) | Upcoming |
| High 15/04/2026 @ 11.24 | Cycle 120 | Trading | 📅 06/10/2026 | +18 (±3) | Upcoming |
| High 15/04/2026 @ 11.24 | Cycle 180 | Calendar | 📅 12/10/2026 | +32 (±3) | Upcoming |
| Low 30/07/2026 @ 6.43 | Cycle 60 | Trading | 📅 23/10/2026 | +31 (±2) | Upcoming |
| High 15/04/2026 @ 11.24 | Cycle 144 | Trading | 📅 09/11/2026 | +42 (±3) | Upcoming |
Chronological: recent past → active → upcoming. The target date is the center of the watch window — it opens a few days before and stays relevant a few days after. 'Near a window' is context only, not a signal.
🔔 Recent Technical Events
Price-action events from the last 30 days. 🎯 marks events that landed near a cycle window — the combinations worth the closest look.
● NR7 Compression 04/09/2026🎯 near Cycle 144 window · 06/09/2026
● Bullish Engulfing 27/08/2026🎯 near Fib 21 window · 28/08/2026
● NR7 Compression 25/08/2026🎯 near Fib 21 window · 28/08/2026
● Shooting Star 13/08/2026
Date Echo — seasonal anniversary
What happened around the same calendar date in prior years. n ≈ number of years — descriptive, not an edge. Each window separately, every number vs baseline.
Passed 28/08/2026 · Low Fib 21/Trading · 9 years — Small sample
10 days: Avg -1.77% · Win 33% · DD -3.56%20 days: Avg -3.31% · Win 33% · DD -6.14%
Open Date Echo · 9 years
| Year | Actual date | Close | Context | 5d | 10d | 20d | Max DD 20d | Max Gain 20d |
|---|
| 2025 | 28/08/2025 | 10.45 | near 52w high | +5.07% | +3.73% | -2.01% | -2.01% | +5.45% |
| 2024 | 28/08/2024 | 10.41 | neutral | -0.19% | -8.65% | -9.61% | -9.70% | +1.73% |
| 2023 | 28/08/2023 | 10.71 | neutral | -0.09% | -0.28% | -3.83% | -4.30% | +2.80% |
| 2022 | 29/08/2022 | 12.25 | neutral | -10.78% | -9.55% | -24.57% | -24.57% | +0.00% |
| 2021 | 27/08/2021 | 15.55 | neutral | -0.39% | -3.41% | -0.84% | -4.76% | +0.45% |
| 2020 | 28/08/2020 | 9.28 | neutral | -1.72% | -2.69% | +1.29% | -8.08% | +2.37% |
| 2019 | 28/08/2019 | 18.46 | neutral | +2.87% | +4.82% | +6.45% | +0.00% | +6.61% |
| 2018 | 28/08/2018 | 19.35 | near 52w high | +0.88% | -0.05% | -0.47% | -0.98% | +0.88% |
| 2017 | 28/08/2017 | 17.90 | neutral | +0.06% | +0.11% | +3.74% | -0.84% | +3.74% |
Passed 06/09/2026 · High Cycle 144/Calendar · 9 years — Small sample
10 days: Avg -0.82% · Win 44% · DD -2.48%20 days: Avg -2.35% · Win 44% · DD -6.50%
Open Date Echo · 9 years
| Year | Actual date | Close | Context | 5d | 10d | 20d | Max DD 20d | Max Gain 20d |
|---|
| 2025 | 05/09/2025 | 10.98 | near 52w high | -1.28% | -3.92% | -4.11% | -7.19% | +0.36% |
| 2024 | 06/09/2024 | 10.30 | neutral | -7.18% | -6.31% | -11.34% | -11.54% | +0.00% |
| 2023 | 06/09/2023 | 10.56 | neutral | -0.47% | +1.42% | -5.90% | -5.90% | +4.26% |
| 2022 | 06/09/2022 | 10.93 | volume x1.9 | +1.37% | +2.56% | -12.21% | -21.14% | +6.31% |
| 2021 | 07/09/2021 | 15.41 | neutral | -2.86% | -3.44% | +0.61% | -3.89% | +0.61% |
| 2020 | 04/09/2020 | 9.12 | neutral | -0.99% | -1.64% | +7.74% | -6.47% | +7.74% |
| 2019 | 06/09/2019 | 19.01 | near 52w high | +1.47% | +2.79% | +1.37% | +0.00% | +3.52% |
| 2018 | 06/09/2018 | 19.40 | near 52w high | +0.41% | -0.93% | -1.46% | -1.46% | +0.41% |
| 2017 | 06/09/2017 | 17.91 | neutral | +0.17% | +2.07% | +4.13% | -0.89% | +4.36% |
In window 11/09/2026 · Low Cycle 30/Trading · 10 years — Small sample
10 days: Avg -2.25% · Win 50% · DD -4.28%20 days: Avg -3.59% · Win 30% · DD -6.58%
Open Date Echo · 10 years
| Year | Actual date | Close | Context | 5d | 10d | 20d | Max DD 20d | Max Gain 20d |
|---|
| 2025 | 11/09/2025 | 11.00 | near 52w high | -3.00% | -6.55% | -9.23% | -9.23% | +0.00% |
| 2024 | 11/09/2024 | 10.19 | neutral | -4.91% | -7.75% | -12.80% | -12.80% | +0.00% |
| 2023 | 11/09/2023 | 10.75 | neutral | +1.02% | -2.98% | -2.55% | -7.56% | +2.42% |
| 2022 | 12/09/2022 | 11.62 | neutral | -2.32% | -18.16% | -24.84% | -25.83% | +0.00% |
| 2021 | 10/09/2021 | 14.81 | neutral | +2.77% | +3.04% | +4.48% | +0.00% | +4.75% |
| 2020 | 11/09/2020 | 8.77 | volume x1.8 | +7.87% | +3.42% | +9.43% | -2.74% | +12.75% |
| 2019 | 11/09/2019 | 19.32 | near 52w high | +0.93% | +1.86% | -0.41% | -1.21% | +1.86% |
| 2018 | 11/09/2018 | 19.44 | near 52w high | -0.46% | -0.41% | -0.72% | -1.66% | +0.21% |
| 2017 | 11/09/2017 | 17.97 | neutral | +0.28% | +2.78% | +3.89% | -0.39% | +4.29% |
| 2016 | 12/09/2016 | 16.75 | near 52w high | +1.13% | +2.21% | -3.12% | -4.40% | +2.93% |
Upcoming 13/09/2026 · Low Cycle 45/Calendar · 10 years — Small sample
10 days: Avg -1.11% · Win 50% · DD -3.47%20 days: Avg -2.09% · Win 50% · DD -5.83%
Open Date Echo · 10 years
| Year | Actual date | Close | Context | 5d | 10d | 20d | Max DD 20d | Max Gain 20d |
|---|
| 2025 | 12/09/2025 | 10.84 | near 52w high | -2.68% | -5.54% | -8.46% | -8.46% | +0.00% |
| 2024 | 13/09/2024 | 9.56 | near 52w low | +0.94% | -1.36% | -7.48% | -7.48% | +2.62% |
| 2023 | 13/09/2023 | 10.51 | volume x1.7 | +1.90% | -1.90% | +3.12% | -5.45% | +4.76% |
| 2022 | 13/09/2022 | 11.08 | neutral | +1.17% | -16.61% | -16.96% | -22.21% | +2.44% |
| 2021 | 13/09/2021 | 15.02 | neutral | -0.87% | +2.66% | +2.95% | -0.93% | +3.29% |
| 2020 | 14/09/2020 | 9.03 | neutral | -0.66% | +4.10% | +6.86% | -5.54% | +9.50% |
| 2019 | 13/09/2019 | 19.29 | near 52w high | +1.30% | +1.55% | +0.38% | -1.05% | +2.02% |
| 2018 | 13/09/2018 | 19.48 | near 52w high | -1.33% | -0.81% | -3.39% | -3.39% | +0.00% |
| 2017 | 13/09/2017 | 17.94 | neutral | +1.90% | +4.18% | +4.41% | -0.22% | +4.47% |
| 2016 | 13/09/2016 | 16.60 | near 52w high | +1.93% | +2.65% | -2.36% | -3.54% | +3.86% |
Upcoming 28/09/2026 · Low Cycle 60/Calendar · 10 years — Small sample
10 days: Avg -0.72% · Win 40% · DD -3.61%20 days: Avg +0.45% · Win 40% · DD -4.58%
Open Date Echo · 10 years
| Year | Actual date | Close | Context | 5d | 10d | 20d | Max DD 20d | Max Gain 20d |
|---|
| 2025 | 29/09/2025 | 10.19 | neutral | +0.60% | -0.40% | +3.12% | -2.62% | +3.92% |
| 2024 | 27/09/2024 | 9.43 | near 52w low | -3.16% | -6.21% | -3.92% | -6.21% | +0.11% |
| 2023 | 28/09/2023 | 10.19 | neutral | -2.94% | +1.47% | -7.65% | -8.83% | +2.75% |
| 2022 | 28/09/2022 | 9.46 | near 52w low · far below SMA50 | -1.54% | -1.10% | +25.14% | -8.89% | +25.14% |
| 2021 | 28/09/2021 | 15.34 | neutral | +1.07% | +1.93% | +0.33% | -1.07% | +3.87% |
| 2020 | 28/09/2020 | 9.40 | neutral | +4.53% | +2.65% | -4.31% | -4.31% | +5.19% |
| 2019 | 27/09/2019 | 19.13 | near 52w high | -1.62% | -1.15% | -5.07% | -5.07% | +0.21% |
| 2018 | 28/09/2018 | 18.87 | near 52w high | -1.01% | -2.49% | -2.97% | -2.97% | +0.11% |
| 2017 | 28/09/2017 | 18.15 | neutral | +0.72% | +0.94% | -0.33% | -0.33% | +1.60% |
| 2016 | 28/09/2016 | 16.48 | near 52w high | -3.88% | -2.85% | +0.12% | -5.46% | +0.12% |
Upcoming 02/10/2026 · Low Cycle 45/Trading · 10 years — Small sample
10 days: Avg +1.37% · Win 70% · DD -2.18%20 days: Avg +1.90% · Win 40% · DD -3.63%
Open Date Echo · 10 years
| Year | Actual date | Close | Context | 5d | 10d | 20d | Max DD 20d | Max Gain 20d |
|---|
| 2025 | 02/10/2025 | 10.23 | neutral | -4.79% | -3.42% | -2.35% | -5.38% | +0.98% |
| 2024 | 02/10/2024 | 8.87 | near 52w low · far below SMA50 | -2.48% | +1.35% | +0.56% | -2.93% | +1.35% |
| 2023 | 02/10/2023 | 9.84 | neutral | +2.85% | +3.66% | -3.66% | -5.59% | +6.40% |
| 2022 | 03/10/2022 | 8.50 | far below SMA50 · volume x1.7 | -1.06% | +11.65% | +32.47% | -1.06% | +37.29% |
| 2021 | 01/10/2021 | 15.13 | neutral | -0.07% | +1.26% | +0.07% | -1.06% | +2.91% |
| 2020 | 02/10/2020 | 9.44 | neutral | -2.12% | -3.18% | -7.84% | -10.17% | +0.85% |
| 2019 | 02/10/2019 | 18.81 | near 52w high | -0.11% | +0.69% | -3.62% | -3.62% | +1.59% |
| 2018 | 02/10/2018 | 18.66 | near 52w high · volume x2.3 | +0.96% | +0.96% | -0.59% | -2.14% | +1.23% |
| 2017 | 02/10/2017 | 18.16 | neutral | +0.28% | +1.32% | -0.28% | -0.39% | +1.54% |
| 2016 | 03/10/2016 | 16.23 | near 52w low | -2.71% | -0.55% | +4.25% | -4.00% | +4.25% |
Upcoming 06/10/2026 · High Cycle 120/Trading · 10 years — Small sample
10 days: Avg +0.79% · Win 60% · DD -1.91%20 days: Avg +3.54% · Win 70% · DD -3.11%
Open Date Echo · 10 years
| Year | Actual date | Close | Context | 5d | 10d | 20d | Max DD 20d | Max Gain 20d |
|---|
| 2025 | 06/10/2025 | 10.00 | neutral | -1.00% | +1.50% | -2.90% | -3.20% | +3.30% |
| 2024 | 07/10/2024 | 8.76 | near 52w low · far below SMA50 | +0.68% | -0.68% | +2.51% | -1.71% | +2.63% |
| 2023 | 06/10/2023 | 9.85 | neutral | +2.44% | -3.55% | +8.93% | -5.69% | +8.93% |
| 2022 | 06/10/2022 | 8.70 | far below SMA50 | +7.47% | +6.55% | +23.22% | -3.33% | +34.14% |
| 2021 | 06/10/2021 | 15.16 | neutral | +1.32% | +2.44% | +0.92% | -1.25% | +2.70% |
| 2020 | 06/10/2020 | 9.26 | neutral | -0.22% | -4.10% | -1.73% | -8.42% | +2.81% |
| 2019 | 07/10/2019 | 18.87 | near 52w high | -0.05% | +1.27% | -3.39% | -3.92% | +1.27% |
| 2018 | 05/10/2018 | 18.68 | near 52w high | -1.50% | -0.59% | +0.11% | -2.25% | +1.02% |
| 2017 | 06/10/2017 | 18.20 | neutral | +0.66% | +1.32% | +0.82% | -0.71% | +1.32% |
| 2016 | 06/10/2016 | 15.67 | near 52w low | +3.06% | +3.77% | +6.89% | -0.57% | +7.98% |
Upcoming 12/10/2026 · High Cycle 180/Calendar · 10 years — Small sample
10 days: Avg +1.25% · Win 40% · DD -2.44%20 days: Avg +4.30% · Win 60% · DD -2.95%
Open Date Echo · 10 years
| Year | Actual date | Close | Context | 5d | 10d | 20d | Max DD 20d | Max Gain 20d |
|---|
| 2025 | 13/10/2025 | 9.90 | neutral | +2.53% | +3.54% | -1.52% | -1.92% | +4.34% |
| 2024 | 11/10/2024 | 8.61 | near 52w low · far below SMA50 | +3.37% | +2.44% | +7.43% | +0.00% | +7.43% |
| 2023 | 12/10/2023 | 10.34 | neutral | -7.06% | -8.99% | -0.58% | -10.15% | +3.77% |
| 2022 | 12/10/2022 | 9.01 | far below SMA50 | +3.55% | +26.53% | +25.86% | +0.00% | +29.52% |
| 2021 | 12/10/2021 | 15.28 | neutral | +0.26% | -1.57% | +1.24% | -2.03% | +2.36% |
| 2020 | 12/10/2020 | 9.29 | neutral | -4.31% | -6.78% | +7.75% | -8.72% | +7.75% |
| 2019 | 11/10/2019 | 18.91 | near 52w high | +0.63% | -3.97% | -4.60% | -4.60% | +1.06% |
| 2018 | 12/10/2018 | 18.40 | near 52w low | +0.92% | -0.49% | +2.72% | -0.76% | +2.72% |
| 2017 | 12/10/2017 | 18.32 | neutral | +0.49% | -1.26% | -0.60% | -1.36% | +0.66% |
| 2016 | 12/10/2016 | 16.01 | near 52w low | +1.44% | +3.06% | +5.25% | +0.00% | +5.68% |
Upcoming 23/10/2026 · Low Cycle 60/Trading · 10 years — Small sample
10 days: Avg +2.56% · Win 60% · DD -2.45%20 days: Avg +4.60% · Win 60% · DD -3.12%
Open Date Echo · 10 years
| Year | Actual date | Close | Context | 5d | 10d | 20d | Max DD 20d | Max Gain 20d |
|---|
| 2025 | 23/10/2025 | 10.25 | neutral | -2.54% | -4.49% | -4.88% | -5.66% | +0.29% |
| 2024 | 23/10/2024 | 8.74 | near 52w low | +2.06% | +4.23% | +4.35% | +0.00% | +5.95% |
| 2023 | 23/10/2023 | 9.37 | neutral | +1.17% | +11.95% | +14.73% | -0.85% | +15.90% |
| 2022 | 24/10/2022 | 9.53 | far below SMA50 | +18.15% | +19.62% | +24.97% | +0.00% | +28.12% |
| 2021 | 22/10/2021 | 15.50 | neutral | -2.32% | +0.90% | -8.39% | -8.39% | +0.90% |
| 2020 | 23/10/2020 | 9.18 | neutral | -5.23% | -5.88% | +15.80% | -7.63% | +20.48% |
| 2019 | 23/10/2019 | 18.96 | near 52w high | -4.38% | -4.11% | -5.06% | -5.64% | +0.00% |
| 2018 | 23/10/2018 | 18.51 | neutral | +0.22% | +1.24% | -0.86% | -1.35% | +2.16% |
| 2017 | 23/10/2017 | 18.37 | neutral | -1.42% | -0.44% | +0.71% | -1.63% | +0.71% |
| 2016 | 24/10/2016 | 16.46 | near 52w high | +2.79% | +2.55% | +4.62% | +0.00% | +5.10% |
Upcoming 09/11/2026 · High Cycle 144/Trading · 10 years — Small sample
10 days: Avg +1.57% · Win 60% · DD -1.62%20 days: Avg +2.82% · Win 70% · DD -2.16%
Open Date Echo · 10 years
| Year | Actual date | Close | Context | 5d | 10d | 20d | Max DD 20d | Max Gain 20d |
|---|
| 2025 | 10/11/2025 | 9.75 | neutral | -0.21% | +1.95% | +2.97% | -0.82% | +5.03% |
| 2024 | 08/11/2024 | 9.25 | neutral | -1.95% | -0.65% | -0.11% | -2.16% | +0.54% |
| 2023 | 09/11/2023 | 10.28 | neutral | +3.40% | +4.28% | +8.66% | -0.19% | +8.66% |
| 2022 | 09/11/2022 | 11.34 | far above SMA50 | +3.70% | +5.64% | +3.09% | -0.53% | +8.99% |
| 2021 | 09/11/2021 | 15.47 | neutral | -5.88% | -8.27% | -9.89% | -13.70% | +0.00% |
| 2020 | 09/11/2020 | 10.01 | far above SMA50 · volume x2.6 | +7.39% | +10.79% | +13.49% | -0.20% | +14.99% |
| 2019 | 08/11/2019 | 18.04 | neutral | -0.72% | -0.50% | +2.88% | -0.83% | +2.88% |
| 2018 | 09/11/2018 | 18.90 | near 52w high | -1.59% | -1.22% | -1.48% | -2.91% | +1.06% |
| 2017 | 09/11/2017 | 18.21 | neutral | +0.66% | +2.09% | +2.58% | -0.16% | +2.58% |
| 2016 | 09/11/2016 | 16.85 | near 52w high | +0.83% | +1.54% | +5.99% | -0.06% | +5.99% |
Questions to Watch
Is there a failed breakout above the window?Did an abnormal reversal candle appear?Is there an abnormal volume spike?Is the advance stalling (no follow-through)?Is short-term support breaking?Any change in relative strength vs QQQ/SPY/SMH?Is the leading sector weakening?
Interpretation & Scenarios
Careful wording — scenarios to watch, not forecasts. The decision is the trader's.
⬆️ Continuation (up) — to watch· Positive relative strength vs SMH.
· If it holds above SMA50 (-11.1%) and breaks out on volume above the window — historically similar zones tended to continue. Technical confirmation needed.
⬇️ Weakness (down) — to watch· The broad trend is down.
· Relative weakness vs QQQ, SPY.
· If a breakout fails or it closes below SMA50 / a nearby low on volume — risk of continued weakness. Watch for fading volume and relative weakness.
↔️ Range / no clear edge· Distance from 52w high: -40.6% · from 52w low: +3.9%.
· Without confirmation either way — no clear edge; waiting for confirmation is reasonable.
Current Snapshot
Returns & distances
| 5 / 10 / 20 / 60 days | -2.62% · -1.91% · -3.19% · -2.73% |
|---|
| Distance from SMA20 / 50 / 200 | -2.51% · -11.14% · -31.75% |
|---|
| Distance from 52w high / low | -40.57% · +3.89% |
|---|
| ATR14 · volume vs 20-avg | 0.09 · 0.93x |
|---|
Relative strength
| vs QQQ (20d) | -1.11% |
|---|
| vs SPY (20d) | -1.30% |
|---|
| vs SMH (20d) | +1.01% |
|---|
Moving averages
| SMA20 / 50 / 200 | 6.85 · 7.52 · 9.79 |
|---|
| 52w high / low | 11.24 · 6.43 |
|---|
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