📡 ARI — Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance
Price-Time Intelligence · decision-support only — not recommendations, not predictions · as of 10/06/2026
Last price (Close)
10.89 -1.00%
Next window · Gann 60 · in 4 days
14/06/2026
Last window · Gann 30 · 28/05/2026
since -0.91%
Daily chart · hover for price & date
Reference points
Last major low · 20/03/2026
10.06
Days: 56 trading / 82 calendar · return since: +8.25%
Last major high · 15/04/2026
11.24
Days: 39 trading / 56 calendar · return since: -3.11%
Price-Time Watch Windows
| Reference point | Cycle | Counting | Target date | Distance | Status |
|---|
| High 15/04/2026 @ 11.24 | Gann 30 | Trading | 28/05/2026 | -9 (±2) | Passed |
| High 15/04/2026 @ 11.24 | Gann 60 | Calendar | 14/06/2026 | +4 (±2) | Upcoming |
| Low 20/03/2026 @ 10.06 | Gann 60 | Trading | 16/06/2026 | +4 (±2) | Upcoming |
| Low 20/03/2026 @ 10.06 | Gann 90 | Calendar | 18/06/2026 | +8 (±3) | Upcoming |
| High 15/04/2026 @ 11.24 | Gann 45 | Trading | 18/06/2026 | +6 (±2) | Upcoming |
| High 15/04/2026 @ 11.24 | Gann 60 | Trading | 09/07/2026 | +21 (±2) | Upcoming |
| High 15/04/2026 @ 11.24 | Gann 90 | Calendar | 14/07/2026 | +34 (±3) | Upcoming |
| Low 20/03/2026 @ 10.06 | Gann 120 | Calendar | 18/07/2026 | +38 (±3) | Upcoming |
| Low 20/03/2026 @ 10.06 | Gann 90 | Trading | 28/07/2026 | +34 (±3) | Upcoming |
Chronological: recent past → active → upcoming. 'Near a window' is context only, not a signal.
Date Echo — seasonal anniversary
What happened around the same calendar date in prior years. n ≈ number of years — descriptive, not an edge. Each window separately, every number vs baseline.
Passed 28/05/2026 · High Gann 30/Trading · 9 years — Small sample
10 days: Avg +0.51% · Win 67% · DD -3.33%20 days: Avg +2.69% · Win 89% · DD -4.15%
Open Date Echo · 9 years
| Year | Actual date | Close | Context | 5d | 10d | 20d | Max DD 20d | Max Gain 20d |
|---|
| 2025 | 28/05/2025 | 9.84 | neutral | -0.20% | +2.24% | +0.10% | -1.32% | +2.24% |
| 2024 | 28/05/2024 | 9.99 | neutral | -0.40% | -2.50% | +1.00% | -2.50% | +2.10% |
| 2023 | 26/05/2023 | 10.16 | neutral | +3.84% | +9.15% | +11.71% | -0.69% | +12.40% |
| 2022 | 27/05/2022 | 12.76 | neutral | -2.98% | -17.87% | -14.97% | -25.00% | +0.00% |
| 2021 | 28/05/2021 | 15.65 | near 52w high | +5.43% | +5.69% | +4.54% | +0.00% | +7.22% |
| 2020 | 28/05/2020 | 8.45 | far above SMA50 | +22.25% | +8.28% | +20.12% | -2.60% | +43.91% |
| 2019 | 28/05/2019 | 18.60 | near 52w high | +0.05% | +0.11% | +0.22% | -1.18% | +1.40% |
| 2018 | 29/05/2018 | 18.64 | near 52w high | +0.27% | +0.91% | +0.59% | -0.27% | +1.45% |
| 2017 | 26/05/2017 | 18.99 | near 52w high | -2.90% | -1.42% | +0.90% | -3.74% | +1.16% |
Upcoming 14/06/2026 · High Gann 60/Calendar · 10 years — Small sample
10 days: Avg +1.40% · Win 70% · DD -2.35%20 days: Avg +2.65% · Win 70% · DD -3.29%
Open Date Echo · 10 years
| Year | Actual date | Close | Context | 5d | 10d | 20d | Max DD 20d | Max Gain 20d |
|---|
| 2025 | 13/06/2025 | 9.82 | volume x1.8 | +0.31% | +1.15% | +3.03% | -1.12% | +5.12% |
| 2024 | 14/06/2024 | 9.98 | neutral | +2.10% | +0.23% | +12.27% | -0.50% | +12.27% |
| 2023 | 14/06/2023 | 11.19 | far above SMA50 | -1.52% | +4.09% | +8.33% | -4.11% | +8.33% |
| 2022 | 14/06/2022 | 10.09 | near 52w low · far below SMA50 | +2.78% | +5.18% | +6.92% | -5.15% | +11.01% |
| 2021 | 14/06/2021 | 16.54 | near 52w high | -0.60% | -1.09% | -4.61% | -7.51% | +1.45% |
| 2020 | 15/06/2020 | 9.94 | far above SMA50 | -1.91% | +2.82% | -4.48% | -8.65% | +2.82% |
| 2019 | 14/06/2019 | 18.79 | near 52w high | -0.43% | +0.35% | +1.72% | -1.01% | +2.10% |
| 2018 | 14/06/2018 | 18.80 | near 52w high | +0.21% | -0.02% | +1.99% | -1.17% | +3.19% |
| 2017 | 14/06/2017 | 18.84 | neutral | +1.17% | +1.50% | -0.95% | -0.95% | +1.96% |
| 2016 | 14/06/2016 | 16.31 | near 52w high | +0.37% | -0.17% | +2.23% | -2.70% | +2.23% |
Upcoming 16/06/2026 · Low Gann 60/Trading · 10 years — Small sample
10 days: Avg +1.98% · Win 60% · DD -2.49%20 days: Avg +3.65% · Win 70% · DD -3.49%
Open Date Echo · 10 years
| Year | Actual date | Close | Context | 5d | 10d | 20d | Max DD 20d | Max Gain 20d |
|---|
| 2025 | 16/06/2025 | 9.79 | neutral | +0.41% | +2.62% | +4.19% | -0.82% | +5.45% |
| 2024 | 17/06/2024 | 10.16 | neutral | -0.98% | -0.22% | +12.02% | -2.26% | +12.02% |
| 2023 | 16/06/2023 | 11.31 | far above SMA50 · volume x2.2 | -2.03% | +2.80% | +9.46% | -5.13% | +9.46% |
| 2022 | 16/06/2022 | 9.57 | near 52w low · far below SMA50 · volume x1.8 | +15.78% | +17.05% | +15.43% | +0.00% | +17.05% |
| 2021 | 16/06/2021 | 16.78 | near 52w high | -2.68% | -2.87% | -6.89% | -8.84% | +0.00% |
| 2020 | 16/06/2020 | 10.15 | far above SMA50 | -0.49% | +0.18% | -0.95% | -10.54% | +0.69% |
| 2019 | 17/06/2019 | 18.68 | near 52w high | -0.05% | +0.29% | +2.48% | -0.43% | +2.70% |
| 2018 | 15/06/2018 | 18.78 | near 52w high · volume x1.6 | -0.05% | -0.19% | +1.88% | -1.06% | +3.30% |
| 2017 | 16/06/2017 | 18.97 | near 52w high · volume x2.0 | +1.05% | +0.21% | -1.46% | -1.62% | +1.27% |
| 2016 | 16/06/2016 | 16.56 | near 52w high | -1.09% | -0.06% | +0.37% | -4.17% | +0.68% |
Upcoming 18/06/2026 · Low Gann 90/Calendar · 10 years — Small sample
10 days: Avg +1.90% · Win 80% · DD -1.89%20 days: Avg +3.56% · Win 70% · DD -3.04%
Open Date Echo · 10 years
| Year | Actual date | Close | Context | 5d | 10d | 20d | Max DD 20d | Max Gain 20d |
|---|
| 2025 | 18/06/2025 | 9.80 | neutral | +0.51% | +3.24% | +1.78% | -0.41% | +5.34% |
| 2024 | 18/06/2024 | 10.09 | neutral | +0.00% | +0.37% | +12.08% | -1.59% | +12.80% |
| 2023 | 16/06/2023 | 11.31 | far above SMA50 · volume x2.2 | -2.03% | +2.80% | +9.46% | -5.13% | +9.46% |
| 2022 | 17/06/2022 | 9.76 | near 52w low · far below SMA50 · volume x3.1 | +12.60% | +14.34% | +17.52% | +0.00% | +17.52% |
| 2021 | 18/06/2021 | 15.90 | volume x2.5 | +3.90% | +1.61% | -3.92% | -3.92% | +4.34% |
| 2020 | 18/06/2020 | 10.05 | far above SMA50 | +1.00% | -3.57% | -3.57% | -9.65% | +1.69% |
| 2019 | 18/06/2019 | 18.79 | near 52w high | -0.80% | +0.13% | +1.83% | -1.01% | +2.10% |
| 2018 | 18/06/2018 | 18.91 | near 52w high | -1.00% | -0.23% | +1.40% | -1.75% | +2.59% |
| 2017 | 19/06/2017 | 19.17 | near 52w high | -0.05% | +0.13% | -3.72% | -3.72% | +0.21% |
| 2016 | 17/06/2016 | 16.40 | near 52w high | -1.46% | +0.16% | +2.73% | -3.23% | +2.73% |
Upcoming 09/07/2026 · High Gann 60/Trading · 10 years — Small sample
10 days: Avg +3.00% · Win 60% · DD -1.24%20 days: Avg +1.99% · Win 60% · DD -2.26%
Open Date Echo · 10 years
| Year | Actual date | Close | Context | 5d | 10d | 20d | Max DD 20d | Max Gain 20d |
|---|
| 2025 | 09/07/2025 | 9.93 | neutral | +0.10% | -0.91% | -0.81% | -3.12% | +1.31% |
| 2024 | 09/07/2024 | 9.95 | neutral | +8.64% | +11.36% | +1.51% | +0.00% | +11.36% |
| 2023 | 10/07/2023 | 11.36 | neutral | +4.14% | +2.11% | -4.75% | -7.83% | +6.34% |
| 2022 | 08/07/2022 | 10.74 | neutral | -1.02% | +6.33% | +16.29% | -2.79% | +18.99% |
| 2021 | 09/07/2021 | 15.69 | neutral | -2.49% | -1.08% | -1.91% | -4.72% | +0.70% |
| 2020 | 09/07/2020 | 8.76 | neutral | +8.33% | +7.76% | +7.65% | +0.00% | +10.73% |
| 2019 | 09/07/2019 | 18.53 | neutral | +0.76% | +0.70% | +0.43% | -0.92% | +1.73% |
| 2018 | 09/07/2018 | 18.85 | near 52w high | -1.01% | -0.05% | +0.69% | -1.01% | +1.38% |
| 2017 | 10/07/2017 | 18.29 | neutral | -0.27% | -0.49% | -1.53% | -2.24% | +0.55% |
| 2016 | 08/07/2016 | 15.99 | near 52w high | +0.94% | +4.32% | +2.31% | +0.00% | +4.32% |
Upcoming 14/07/2026 · High Gann 90/Calendar · 10 years — Small sample
10 days: Avg +2.41% · Win 70% · DD -1.22%20 days: Avg +1.39% · Win 50% · DD -2.79%
Open Date Echo · 10 years
| Year | Actual date | Close | Context | 5d | 10d | 20d | Max DD 20d | Max Gain 20d |
|---|
| 2025 | 14/07/2025 | 9.99 | neutral | -2.90% | -2.30% | -0.90% | -3.70% | +0.30% |
| 2024 | 15/07/2024 | 10.63 | neutral | +2.35% | +1.22% | -6.30% | -6.30% | +4.23% |
| 2023 | 14/07/2023 | 11.75 | far above SMA50 | -1.87% | +1.19% | -8.51% | -10.89% | +2.81% |
| 2022 | 14/07/2022 | 10.44 | neutral | +9.39% | +21.46% | +22.89% | +0.00% | +22.89% |
| 2021 | 14/07/2021 | 15.21 | neutral | +3.75% | +1.64% | +1.25% | -1.71% | +3.75% |
| 2020 | 14/07/2020 | 9.16 | neutral | +2.51% | +1.64% | +4.80% | -1.09% | +6.99% |
| 2019 | 15/07/2019 | 18.64 | near 52w high | -0.43% | -0.05% | +0.86% | -1.50% | +2.04% |
| 2018 | 13/07/2018 | 18.70 | near 52w high | +0.75% | +0.80% | -0.11% | -0.21% | +2.19% |
| 2017 | 14/07/2017 | 18.33 | neutral | -0.55% | -2.46% | -1.91% | -2.46% | +0.00% |
| 2016 | 14/07/2016 | 16.08 | near 52w high | +2.92% | +0.93% | +1.80% | -0.06% | +3.73% |
Upcoming 18/07/2026 · Low Gann 120/Calendar · 10 years — Small sample
10 days: Avg +0.63% · Win 50% · DD -2.20%20 days: Avg +0.92% · Win 60% · DD -2.99%
Open Date Echo · 10 years
| Year | Actual date | Close | Context | 5d | 10d | 20d | Max DD 20d | Max Gain 20d |
|---|
| 2025 | 18/07/2025 | 9.72 | neutral | +1.44% | +0.62% | +3.50% | -1.03% | +4.22% |
| 2024 | 18/07/2024 | 10.91 | neutral | -2.66% | -2.38% | -6.78% | -8.71% | +1.56% |
| 2023 | 18/07/2023 | 12.00 | far above SMA50 | -4.25% | -12.25% | -12.67% | -12.75% | +0.67% |
| 2022 | 18/07/2022 | 10.69 | neutral | +8.14% | +18.62% | +21.70% | +0.00% | +21.70% |
| 2021 | 19/07/2021 | 14.95 | volume x1.6 | +4.68% | +0.87% | +1.00% | +0.00% | +5.55% |
| 2020 | 17/07/2020 | 9.35 | neutral | -2.35% | -0.53% | +0.86% | -3.10% | +4.81% |
| 2019 | 18/07/2019 | 18.64 | near 52w high | +0.21% | +1.02% | -0.54% | -1.50% | +2.04% |
| 2018 | 18/07/2018 | 18.73 | near 52w high | +1.55% | +1.66% | +1.71% | -0.27% | +2.03% |
| 2017 | 18/07/2017 | 18.01 | neutral | +0.17% | -0.56% | +0.50% | -0.72% | +1.22% |
| 2016 | 18/07/2016 | 16.36 | near 52w high | +0.98% | -0.73% | -0.06% | -1.77% | +1.96% |
Upcoming 28/07/2026 · Low Gann 90/Trading · 10 years — Small sample
10 days: Avg -1.02% · Win 60% · DD -3.31%20 days: Avg -0.81% · Win 40% · DD -4.09%
Open Date Echo · 10 years
| Year | Actual date | Close | Context | 5d | 10d | 20d | Max DD 20d | Max Gain 20d |
|---|
| 2025 | 28/07/2025 | 9.76 | neutral | +1.54% | +1.43% | +5.33% | -1.43% | +6.45% |
| 2024 | 29/07/2024 | 10.76 | neutral | -6.60% | -7.43% | -3.07% | -7.43% | +1.77% |
| 2023 | 28/07/2023 | 11.89 | neutral | -9.84% | -9.59% | -12.70% | -15.56% | +0.00% |
| 2022 | 28/07/2022 | 12.68 | far above SMA50 · volume x1.7 | -2.37% | +1.18% | +0.00% | -4.42% | +3.08% |
| 2021 | 28/07/2021 | 15.46 | neutral | -2.91% | -0.39% | -0.52% | -4.66% | +0.00% |
| 2020 | 28/07/2020 | 9.31 | neutral | -0.64% | +3.11% | -0.97% | -3.87% | +5.26% |
| 2019 | 29/07/2019 | 18.63 | near 52w high | -1.45% | +0.91% | +0.81% | -1.45% | +2.09% |
| 2018 | 27/07/2018 | 18.85 | near 52w high | +0.64% | -0.90% | +2.65% | -0.90% | +3.13% |
| 2017 | 28/07/2017 | 17.88 | neutral | +0.73% | +0.56% | -0.22% | -0.22% | +1.96% |
| 2016 | 28/07/2016 | 16.23 | near 52w high | +0.06% | +0.86% | +0.55% | -0.99% | +1.60% |
Questions to Watch
Is there a failed breakout above the window?Did an abnormal reversal candle appear?Is there an abnormal volume spike?Is the advance stalling (no follow-through)?Is short-term support breaking?Any change in relative strength vs QQQ/SPY/SMH?Is the leading sector weakening?
Interpretation & Scenarios
Careful wording — scenarios to watch, not forecasts. The decision is the trader's.
⬆️ Continuation (up) — to watch· Positive relative strength vs QQQ, SPY.
· If it holds above SMA50 (-0.3%) and breaks out on volume above the window — historically similar zones tended to continue. Technical confirmation needed.
⬇️ Weakness (down) — to watch· Relative weakness vs SMH.
· If a breakout fails or it closes below SMA50 / a nearby low on volume — risk of continued weakness. Watch for fading volume and relative weakness.
↔️ Range / no clear edge· No active Price-Time Confluence right now.
· Distance from 52w high: -3.1% · from 52w low: +14.8%.
· Without confirmation either way — no clear edge; waiting for confirmation is reasonable.
Current Snapshot
Returns & distances
| 5 / 10 / 20 / 60 days | +0.00% · -0.37% · +0.93% · +7.98% |
|---|
| Distance from SMA20 / 50 / 200 | -0.41% · -0.31% · +4.41% |
|---|
| Distance from 52w high / low | -3.11% · +14.75% |
|---|
| ATR14 · volume vs 20-avg | 0.16 · 0.39x |
|---|
Relative strength
| vs QQQ (20d) | +2.84% |
|---|
| vs SPY (20d) | +2.65% |
|---|
| vs SMH (20d) | -0.79% |
|---|
Moving averages
| SMA20 / 50 / 200 | 10.93 · 10.92 · 10.43 |
|---|
| 52w high / low | 11.24 · 9.49 |
|---|