🕰️ Time Machine
ERIE — Erie Indemnity
Price-Time Intelligence · decision-support only — not recommendations, not predictions · as of 10/09/2026
Last price (Close)
244.71 +0.36%
Next window · Cycle 60 · in 3 days
13/09/2026
Last window · Cycle 45 · 09/09/2026
since +0.36%
🕰️ Time Machine — see this symbol's past windows
Daily chart · hover for price & date
Reference points
Last major low · 15/07/2026
205.64
Days: 40 trading / 57 calendar · return since: +19.00%
Last major high · 07/07/2026
262.70
Days: 46 trading / 65 calendar · return since: -6.85%
Price-Time Watch Windows
| Reference point | Cycle | Counting | Target date | Distance | Status |
|---|
| Low 15/07/2026 @ 205.64 | Cycle 30 | Trading | 📅 26/08/2026 | -10 (±2) | Passed |
| High 07/07/2026 @ 262.70 | Cycle 60 | Calendar | 📅 05/09/2026 | -5 (±2) | Passed |
| High 07/07/2026 @ 262.70 | Cycle 45 | Trading | 📅 09/09/2026 | -1 (±2) | In window |
| Low 15/07/2026 @ 205.64 | Cycle 60 | Calendar | 📅 13/09/2026 | +3 (±2) | Upcoming |
| Low 15/07/2026 @ 205.64 | Cycle 45 | Trading | 📅 17/09/2026 | +5 (±2) | Upcoming |
| High 07/07/2026 @ 262.70 | Cycle 60 | Trading | 📅 30/09/2026 | +14 (±2) | Upcoming |
| High 07/07/2026 @ 262.70 | Cycle 90 | Calendar | 📅 05/10/2026 | +25 (±3) | Upcoming |
| Low 15/07/2026 @ 205.64 | Cycle 60 | Trading | 📅 08/10/2026 | +20 (±2) | Upcoming |
| Low 15/07/2026 @ 205.64 | Cycle 90 | Calendar | 📅 13/10/2026 | +33 (±3) | Upcoming |
| High 07/07/2026 @ 262.70 | Cycle 90 | Trading | 📅 11/11/2026 | +44 (±3) | Upcoming |
Chronological: recent past → active → upcoming. The target date is the center of the watch window — it opens a few days before and stays relevant a few days after. 'Near a window' is context only, not a signal.
🔔 Recent Technical Events
Price-action events from the last 30 days. 🎯 marks events that landed near a cycle window — the combinations worth the closest look.
● NR7 Compression 10/09/2026🎯 near Cycle 45 window · 09/09/2026
● Hammer Reversal 09/09/2026🎯 near Cycle 45 window · 09/09/2026
● Failed Breakdown 09/09/2026🎯 near Cycle 45 window · 09/09/2026
● NR7 Compression 28/08/2026🎯 near Cycle 30 window · 26/08/2026
● Bullish Engulfing 27/08/2026🎯 near Cycle 30 window · 26/08/2026
● Failed Breakout 24/08/2026🎯 near Cycle 30 window · 26/08/2026
● Failed Breakout 12/08/2026
Date Echo — seasonal anniversary
What happened around the same calendar date in prior years. n ≈ number of years — descriptive, not an edge. Each window separately, every number vs baseline.
Passed 26/08/2026 · Low Cycle 30/Trading · 9 years — Small sample
10 days: Avg +0.50% · Win 67% · DD -2.73%20 days: Avg -0.38% · Win 33% · DD -4.02%
Open Date Echo · 9 years
| Year | Actual date | Close | Context | 5d | 10d | 20d | Max DD 20d | Max Gain 20d |
|---|
| 2025 | 26/08/2025 | 350.10 | volume x1.8 | -6.26% | -5.74% | -10.23% | -10.23% | +1.22% |
| 2024 | 26/08/2024 | 485.63 | near 52w high · far above SMA50 | +1.44% | +4.35% | +12.19% | +0.00% | +12.19% |
| 2023 | 25/08/2023 | 280.88 | near 52w high · far above SMA50 | +0.51% | +0.73% | +5.27% | -2.46% | +5.27% |
| 2022 | 26/08/2022 | 217.70 | neutral | -0.97% | +1.79% | -0.51% | -2.87% | +3.42% |
| 2021 | 26/08/2021 | 173.99 | near 52w low | +3.57% | +1.44% | +4.01% | +0.00% | +5.79% |
| 2020 | 26/08/2020 | 205.50 | volume x1.6 | +6.01% | +7.20% | -1.44% | -1.44% | +9.14% |
| 2019 | 26/08/2019 | 213.51 | far below SMA50 | +0.45% | -4.72% | -10.57% | -10.95% | +2.72% |
| 2018 | 27/08/2018 | 127.01 | near 52w high | -0.06% | +0.03% | -0.37% | -2.74% | +2.00% |
| 2017 | 25/08/2017 | 120.92 | neutral | -2.13% | -0.60% | -1.81% | -5.48% | +0.66% |
Passed 05/09/2026 · High Cycle 60/Calendar · 9 years — Small sample
10 days: Avg +1.15% · Win 78% · DD -1.91%20 days: Avg +0.92% · Win 78% · DD -3.82%
Open Date Echo · 9 years
| Year | Actual date | Close | Context | 5d | 10d | 20d | Max DD 20d | Max Gain 20d |
|---|
| 2025 | 05/09/2025 | 335.07 | near 52w low | +1.07% | -5.10% | -4.75% | -6.87% | +1.07% |
| 2024 | 05/09/2024 | 495.95 | near 52w high · far above SMA50 | +3.02% | +6.13% | +8.01% | +0.00% | +9.86% |
| 2023 | 05/09/2023 | 276.16 | far above SMA50 | +4.32% | +6.32% | +5.63% | -0.80% | +8.50% |
| 2022 | 06/09/2022 | 222.52 | volume x1.8 | -0.19% | +0.64% | +5.76% | -3.27% | +5.76% |
| 2021 | 03/09/2021 | 180.87 | neutral | -1.09% | +1.47% | +0.47% | -2.86% | +1.76% |
| 2020 | 04/09/2020 | 209.94 | neutral | +6.83% | +1.63% | +4.47% | -3.52% | +6.83% |
| 2019 | 05/09/2019 | 214.06 | neutral | -3.66% | -7.11% | -15.90% | -17.11% | +0.97% |
| 2018 | 05/09/2018 | 125.48 | near 52w high | +0.94% | +2.75% | +0.26% | +0.00% | +3.24% |
| 2017 | 05/09/2017 | 114.29 | neutral | +5.82% | +3.59% | +4.31% | +0.00% | +7.34% |
In window 09/09/2026 · High Cycle 45/Trading · 10 years — Small sample
10 days: Avg -1.08% · Win 50% · DD -3.24%20 days: Avg +0.51% · Win 70% · DD -4.28%
Open Date Echo · 10 years
| Year | Actual date | Close | Context | 5d | 10d | 20d | Max DD 20d | Max Gain 20d |
|---|
| 2025 | 09/09/2025 | 331.55 | near 52w low | -3.26% | -4.30% | -3.25% | -5.88% | +2.14% |
| 2024 | 09/09/2024 | 503.19 | far above SMA50 · volume x2.9 | +4.91% | +6.97% | +3.98% | -0.32% | +8.28% |
| 2023 | 08/09/2023 | 276.42 | far above SMA50 | +3.28% | +4.96% | +10.29% | +0.00% | +10.29% |
| 2022 | 09/09/2022 | 222.99 | neutral | -1.49% | -2.03% | +3.51% | -3.48% | +6.34% |
| 2021 | 09/09/2021 | 175.89 | near 52w low | +2.15% | +3.62% | +7.05% | +0.00% | +7.05% |
| 2020 | 09/09/2020 | 220.58 | near 52w high · volume x1.5 | +0.47% | -7.83% | +0.35% | -8.17% | +1.68% |
| 2019 | 09/09/2019 | 215.08 | neutral | -4.13% | -11.60% | -16.29% | -17.50% | +0.00% |
| 2018 | 10/09/2018 | 126.15 | near 52w high | +2.36% | +1.01% | +0.02% | -1.08% | +2.70% |
| 2017 | 08/09/2017 | 121.60 | volume x2.7 | -2.86% | -2.43% | -1.71% | -3.83% | +0.89% |
| 2016 | 12/09/2016 | 99.57 | near 52w high | -0.31% | +0.81% | +1.20% | -2.50% | +2.51% |
Upcoming 13/09/2026 · Low Cycle 60/Calendar · 10 years — Small sample
10 days: Avg -1.78% · Win 40% · DD -4.01%20 days: Avg +0.91% · Win 60% · DD -4.62%
Open Date Echo · 10 years
| Year | Actual date | Close | Context | 5d | 10d | 20d | Max DD 20d | Max Gain 20d |
|---|
| 2025 | 12/09/2025 | 338.66 | near 52w low | -6.10% | -6.69% | -3.83% | -7.86% | +0.00% |
| 2024 | 13/09/2024 | 520.98 | near 52w high · far above SMA50 | +0.01% | +3.46% | +2.88% | +0.00% | +4.58% |
| 2023 | 13/09/2023 | 288.67 | near 52w high · far above SMA50 | +1.36% | +3.80% | +6.19% | -1.11% | +6.75% |
| 2022 | 13/09/2022 | 222.09 | neutral | +0.84% | -3.08% | +6.13% | -3.08% | +6.77% |
| 2021 | 13/09/2021 | 178.90 | neutral | +2.59% | +2.15% | +8.16% | -1.48% | +8.16% |
| 2020 | 14/09/2020 | 224.28 | near 52w high | -4.87% | -7.04% | +2.10% | -9.69% | +2.10% |
| 2019 | 13/09/2019 | 205.82 | far below SMA50 | -7.58% | -10.66% | -9.71% | -13.79% | +2.14% |
| 2018 | 13/09/2018 | 127.74 | near 52w high | +1.42% | -0.97% | -3.64% | -3.64% | +1.42% |
| 2017 | 13/09/2017 | 121.43 | neutral | -1.44% | -1.74% | -1.19% | -3.70% | +1.03% |
| 2016 | 13/09/2016 | 98.91 | near 52w high | +0.19% | +3.01% | +1.97% | -1.85% | +3.19% |
Upcoming 17/09/2026 · Low Cycle 45/Trading · 10 years — Small sample
10 days: Avg -1.29% · Win 50% · DD -3.59%20 days: Avg +1.31% · Win 70% · DD -4.04%
Open Date Echo · 10 years
| Year | Actual date | Close | Context | 5d | 10d | 20d | Max DD 20d | Max Gain 20d |
|---|
| 2025 | 17/09/2025 | 320.37 | near 52w low · volume x1.6 | -1.90% | -2.60% | -0.19% | -2.60% | +2.73% |
| 2024 | 17/09/2024 | 524.93 | near 52w high · far above SMA50 | +3.79% | +2.73% | +0.37% | -0.75% | +3.79% |
| 2023 | 18/09/2023 | 288.98 | near 52w high · far above SMA50 | +2.32% | +0.79% | +8.21% | +0.00% | +8.21% |
| 2022 | 16/09/2022 | 219.66 | volume x2.3 | -0.54% | +1.21% | +5.92% | -2.01% | +8.09% |
| 2021 | 17/09/2021 | 183.22 | volume x4.4 | -1.23% | -0.30% | +6.74% | -3.25% | +8.16% |
| 2020 | 17/09/2020 | 221.81 | near 52w high | -8.68% | -4.80% | +3.84% | -8.68% | +3.86% |
| 2019 | 17/09/2019 | 210.23 | neutral | -9.17% | -13.80% | -14.27% | -15.60% | +0.00% |
| 2018 | 17/09/2018 | 129.13 | near 52w high | -1.32% | -2.77% | -5.50% | -5.50% | +0.33% |
| 2017 | 18/09/2017 | 119.32 | neutral | -0.49% | +2.82% | +2.43% | -1.99% | +2.82% |
| 2016 | 16/09/2016 | 98.29 | near 52w high | +2.24% | +3.85% | +5.59% | +0.00% | +5.59% |
Upcoming 30/09/2026 · High Cycle 60/Trading · 10 years — Small sample
10 days: Avg +2.62% · Win 70% · DD -1.62%20 days: Avg +2.26% · Win 70% · DD -3.64%
Open Date Echo · 10 years
| Year | Actual date | Close | Context | 5d | 10d | 20d | Max DD 20d | Max Gain 20d |
|---|
| 2025 | 30/09/2025 | 318.16 | near 52w low | +0.82% | +1.37% | +1.12% | -1.92% | +4.16% |
| 2024 | 30/09/2024 | 539.82 | near 52w high · far above SMA50 | -3.08% | -0.98% | -16.38% | -17.55% | +0.56% |
| 2023 | 29/09/2023 | 293.79 | near 52w high | +3.77% | +4.76% | -6.61% | -6.61% | +6.56% |
| 2022 | 30/09/2022 | 222.31 | neutral | +3.83% | +4.66% | +12.69% | +0.00% | +12.69% |
| 2021 | 30/09/2021 | 178.42 | neutral | +5.54% | +10.20% | +12.87% | +0.00% | +14.08% |
| 2020 | 30/09/2020 | 210.28 | neutral | +5.26% | +8.55% | +12.15% | +0.00% | +12.15% |
| 2019 | 30/09/2019 | 185.65 | far below SMA50 | -3.02% | -1.27% | -0.25% | -4.42% | +2.57% |
| 2018 | 01/10/2018 | 125.55 | near 52w high | +0.50% | -2.80% | +3.51% | -2.80% | +4.34% |
| 2017 | 29/09/2017 | 120.57 | neutral | -0.88% | +0.04% | +3.51% | -1.14% | +3.61% |
| 2016 | 30/09/2016 | 102.07 | near 52w high | -1.16% | +1.68% | +0.02% | -1.92% | +3.34% |
Upcoming 05/10/2026 · High Cycle 90/Calendar · 10 years — Small sample
10 days: Avg +1.26% · Win 90% · DD -1.97%20 days: Avg +0.15% · Win 70% · DD -5.01%
Open Date Echo · 10 years
| Year | Actual date | Close | Context | 5d | 10d | 20d | Max DD 20d | Max Gain 20d |
|---|
| 2025 | 06/10/2025 | 316.19 | near 52w low | +1.04% | +0.07% | -9.75% | -9.75% | +4.36% |
| 2024 | 04/10/2024 | 542.86 | near 52w high · far above SMA50 | -1.27% | -11.06% | -23.34% | -23.34% | +0.00% |
| 2023 | 05/10/2023 | 302.65 | near 52w high | +1.04% | +0.47% | -8.16% | -9.71% | +3.02% |
| 2022 | 05/10/2022 | 235.97 | near 52w high | -2.10% | +1.19% | +9.55% | -2.65% | +9.55% |
| 2021 | 05/10/2021 | 185.05 | neutral | +4.04% | +6.36% | +14.81% | -0.16% | +14.81% |
| 2020 | 05/10/2020 | 218.32 | near 52w high | +4.41% | +3.40% | +8.07% | +0.00% | +8.18% |
| 2019 | 04/10/2019 | 181.60 | far below SMA50 | +1.82% | +3.12% | +0.83% | -1.35% | +4.33% |
| 2018 | 05/10/2018 | 123.96 | near 52w high | -1.59% | +2.02% | +4.61% | -2.21% | +5.78% |
| 2017 | 05/10/2017 | 119.16 | neutral | +1.17% | +3.64% | +2.97% | -0.63% | +4.15% |
| 2016 | 05/10/2016 | 99.68 | near 52w high | +1.96% | +3.37% | +1.87% | -0.29% | +5.06% |
Upcoming 08/10/2026 · Low Cycle 60/Trading · 10 years — Small sample
10 days: Avg +1.00% · Win 70% · DD -2.30%20 days: Avg +0.71% · Win 70% · DD -5.15%
Open Date Echo · 10 years
| Year | Actual date | Close | Context | 5d | 10d | 20d | Max DD 20d | Max Gain 20d |
|---|
| 2025 | 08/10/2025 | 327.70 | neutral | -2.84% | -1.51% | -12.07% | -12.92% | +0.69% |
| 2024 | 08/10/2024 | 530.90 | near 52w high | -0.99% | -11.77% | -23.02% | -24.19% | +0.72% |
| 2023 | 09/10/2023 | 306.89 | near 52w high | +1.48% | -3.00% | -8.70% | -10.96% | +1.60% |
| 2022 | 07/10/2022 | 229.71 | near 52w high | +0.80% | +3.76% | +15.07% | +0.00% | +15.07% |
| 2021 | 08/10/2021 | 190.38 | neutral | +2.14% | +6.31% | +17.83% | +0.00% | +17.83% |
| 2020 | 08/10/2020 | 221.29 | near 52w high | +3.61% | +4.16% | +7.91% | +0.00% | +8.63% |
| 2019 | 08/10/2019 | 179.15 | far below SMA50 | +0.09% | +4.04% | +1.52% | +0.00% | +5.76% |
| 2018 | 08/10/2018 | 125.34 | near 52w high | -3.29% | +1.35% | +4.13% | -3.29% | +4.62% |
| 2017 | 09/10/2017 | 118.41 | neutral | +2.54% | +4.54% | +3.47% | +0.00% | +4.81% |
| 2016 | 07/10/2016 | 100.16 | near 52w high | +2.88% | +2.10% | +0.94% | -0.12% | +4.55% |
Upcoming 13/10/2026 · Low Cycle 90/Calendar · 10 years — Small sample
10 days: Avg -0.90% · Win 70% · DD -3.82%20 days: Avg +0.55% · Win 60% · DD -5.92%
Open Date Echo · 10 years
| Year | Actual date | Close | Context | 5d | 10d | 20d | Max DD 20d | Max Gain 20d |
|---|
| 2025 | 13/10/2025 | 319.47 | near 52w low | -0.95% | +3.29% | -13.10% | -13.10% | +3.29% |
| 2024 | 14/10/2024 | 533.27 | near 52w high | -10.38% | -15.55% | -20.87% | -24.52% | +0.00% |
| 2023 | 13/10/2023 | 306.52 | near 52w high | -2.16% | -10.85% | -9.19% | -10.85% | +1.72% |
| 2022 | 13/10/2022 | 236.28 | near 52w high | -0.92% | +0.97% | +14.85% | -2.01% | +14.85% |
| 2021 | 13/10/2021 | 197.05 | neutral | +0.84% | +0.52% | +16.65% | -1.31% | +16.65% |
| 2020 | 13/10/2020 | 229.32 | near 52w high | -1.91% | +2.18% | +3.81% | -1.91% | +4.82% |
| 2019 | 14/10/2019 | 182.38 | far below SMA50 | +3.89% | +1.03% | -0.88% | -3.37% | +3.89% |
| 2018 | 12/10/2018 | 121.99 | neutral | +3.67% | +6.67% | +9.94% | -0.63% | +9.94% |
| 2017 | 13/10/2017 | 119.83 | neutral | +3.35% | +3.46% | +2.38% | +0.00% | +3.56% |
| 2016 | 13/10/2016 | 102.63 | near 52w high | -0.69% | -0.72% | +1.93% | -1.49% | +2.04% |
Upcoming 11/11/2026 · High Cycle 90/Trading · 10 years — Small sample
10 days: Avg -0.19% · Win 70% · DD -2.99%20 days: Avg -1.43% · Win 30% · DD -5.37%
Open Date Echo · 10 years
| Year | Actual date | Close | Context | 5d | 10d | 20d | Max DD 20d | Max Gain 20d |
|---|
| 2025 | 11/11/2025 | 282.66 | near 52w low · far below SMA50 | +2.66% | +4.59% | -2.71% | -2.71% | +6.06% |
| 2024 | 11/11/2024 | 421.96 | far below SMA50 | -2.21% | +2.21% | -4.81% | -4.81% | +4.41% |
| 2023 | 10/11/2023 | 278.36 | neutral | +0.59% | +5.14% | +14.65% | -0.18% | +14.65% |
| 2022 | 11/11/2022 | 252.67 | volume x1.7 | +6.06% | +4.60% | +6.25% | +0.00% | +11.76% |
| 2021 | 11/11/2021 | 230.68 | far above SMA50 | -4.85% | -9.32% | -15.95% | -20.53% | +0.00% |
| 2020 | 11/11/2020 | 247.34 | near 52w high · far above SMA50 | -1.87% | -7.03% | -6.82% | -11.27% | +0.00% |
| 2019 | 11/11/2019 | 180.78 | neutral | -1.20% | -4.87% | -7.48% | -7.63% | +2.25% |
| 2018 | 12/11/2018 | 133.23 | neutral | +0.61% | +0.90% | -2.02% | -2.03% | +3.05% |
| 2017 | 10/11/2017 | 122.68 | neutral | +0.06% | +0.26% | -2.23% | -2.79% | +0.99% |
| 2016 | 11/11/2016 | 106.54 | near 52w high | -0.23% | +1.61% | +6.84% | -1.79% | +7.57% |
Questions to Watch
Is there a failed breakout above the window?Did an abnormal reversal candle appear?Is there an abnormal volume spike?Is the advance stalling (no follow-through)?Is short-term support breaking?Any change in relative strength vs QQQ/SPY/SMH?Is the leading sector weakening?
Interpretation & Scenarios
Careful wording — scenarios to watch, not forecasts. The decision is the trader's.
⬆️ Continuation (up) — to watch· If it holds above SMA50 (-0.9%) and breaks out on volume above the window — historically similar zones tended to continue. Technical confirmation needed.
⬇️ Weakness (down) — to watch· The broad trend is down.
· Relative weakness vs QQQ, SPY, SMH.
· If a breakout fails or it closes below SMA50 / a nearby low on volume — risk of continued weakness. Watch for fading volume and relative weakness.
↔️ Range / no clear edge· No active Price-Time Confluence right now.
· Distance from 52w high: -28.4% · from 52w low: +19.6%.
· Without confirmation either way — no clear edge; waiting for confirmation is reasonable.
Current Snapshot
Returns & distances
| 5 / 10 / 20 / 60 days | -5.30% · -4.88% · -5.21% · +9.85% |
|---|
| Distance from SMA20 / 50 / 200 | -4.56% · -0.85% · -3.51% |
|---|
| Distance from 52w high / low | -28.39% · +19.59% |
|---|
| ATR14 · volume vs 20-avg | 7.71 · 0.04x |
|---|
Relative strength
| vs QQQ (20d) | -3.24% |
|---|
| vs SPY (20d) | -3.32% |
|---|
| vs SMH (20d) | -1.28% |
|---|
Moving averages
| SMA20 / 50 / 200 | 256.39 · 246.81 · 253.60 |
|---|
| 52w high / low | 341.71 · 204.63 |
|---|
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